Scientific Problem Selection

What This Skill Does

• This skill provides a conversational framework for systematically selecting and refining scientific research problems.
• It's based on principles from Fischbach & Walsh's work on problem choice and decision trees, guiding users through idea generation, risk assessment, and optimization.
• It's designed for scientists seeking to improve their project selection process.

When to Use

• Pitch a new research idea for collaborative development.
• Troubleshoot a problem encountered in a current project.
• Navigate strategic decisions in research planning.
• Refine and strengthen a research idea using intuition pumps.
• Identify and manage potential risks in a research project.
• Define clear success metrics for a research project.

Key Features

• Offers three entry points: pitching ideas, troubleshooting problems, strategic questions.
• Provides structured prompts to elicit key information from users.
• Summarizes user ideas to ensure understanding and alignment.
• Guides users through early stages of problem selection and evaluation.
• Implements intuition pumps to refine and strengthen ideas.
• Facilitates risk assessment and optimization function definition.

Manual Installation

Getting Started

Present users with three entry points:

1. Pitch an idea for a new project — to work it up together

2. Share a problem in a current project — to troubleshoot together

3. Ask a strategic question — to navigate the decision tree together

This conversational entry meets scientists where they are and establishes a collaborative tone.

Option 1: Pitch an Idea

Initial Prompt

Ask: "Tell me the short version of your idea (1-2 sentences)."

Response Approach

• After the user shares their idea, return a quick summary (no more than one paragraph) demonstrating understanding.
• Note the general area of research and rephrase the idea in a way that highlights its kernel—showing alignment and readiness to dive into details.

Follow-up Prompt

Then ask for more detail: "Now give me a bit more detail. You might include, however briefly or even say where you are unsure: What exactly you want to do How you currently plan to do it If it works, why will it be a big deal What you think are the major risks"

Workflow

From there, guide the user through the early stages of problem selection and evaluation: Skill 1: Intuition Pumps - Refine and strengthen the idea Skill 2: Risk Assessment - Identify and manage project risks Skill 3: Optimization Function - Define success metrics Skill 4: Parameter Strategy - Determine what to fix vs. keep flexible

See references/01-intuition-pumps.md, references/02-risk-assessment.md, references/03-optimization-function.md, and references/04-parameter-strategy.md for detailed guidance.

Option 2: Troubleshoot a Problem

Initial Prompt

Ask: "Tell me a short version of your problem (1-2 sentences or whatever is easy)."

Response Approach

• After the user shares their problem, return a quick summary (no more than one paragraph) demonstrating understanding.
• Note the context of the project where the problem occurred and rephrase the problem—highlighting its core essence—so the user knows the situation is understood.
• Also raise additional questions that seem important to discuss.

Follow-up Prompt

Then ask: "Now give me a bit more detail. You might include, however briefly: The overall goal of your project (if we have not talked about it before) What exactly went wrong Your current ideas for fixing it"

Workflow

From there, guide the user through troubleshooting and decision tree navigation: Skill 5: Decision Tree Navigation - Plan decision points and navigate between execution and strategic thinking Skill 4: Parameter Strategy - Fix one parameter at a time, let others float Skill 6: Adversity Response - Frame problems as opportunities for growth Skill 7: Problem Inversion - Strategies for navigating around obstacles

Always include workarounds that might be useful whether or not the problem can be fixed easily.

See references/05-decision-tree.md, references/06-adversity-planning.md, references/07-problem-inversion.md, and references/04-parameter-strategy.md for detailed guidance.

Option 3: Ask a Strategic Question

Initial Prompt

Ask: "Tell me the short version of your question (1-2 sentences)."

Response Approach

• After the user shares their question, return a quick summary (no more than one paragraph) demonstrating understanding.
• Note the broader context and rephrase the question—highlighting its crux—to confirm alignment with their thinking.

Follow-up Prompt

Then ask: "Now give me a bit more detail. You might include, however briefly: The setting (i.e., is this about a current or future project) A bit more detail about what you're thinking"

Workflow

From there, draw on the specific modules from the problem choice framework most appropriate to the question: Skills 1-4 for future project planning (ideation, risk, optimization, parameters) Skills 5-7 for current project navigation (decision trees, adversity, inversion) Skill 8 for communication and synthesis Skill 9 for comprehensive workflow orchestration

See the complete reference materials in the references/ folder.

Core Framework Concepts

The Central Insight

Problem Choice >> Execution Quality

• Even brilliant execution of a mediocre problem yields incremental impact.
• Good execution of an important problem yields substantial impact.

The Time Paradox

Scientists typically spend: Days choosing a problem Years solving it

• This imbalance limits impact.
• These skills help invest more time choosing wisely.

Evaluation Axes

For Evaluating Ideas: X-axis: Likelihood of success Y-axis: Impact if successful

Skills help move ideas rightward (more feasible) and upward (more impactful).

The Risk Paradox

Don't avoid risk—befriend it No risk = incremental work But: Multiple miracles = avoid or refine Balance: Understood, quantified, manageable risk

The Parameter Paradox

Too many fixed = brittleness Too few fixed = paralysis Sweet spot: Fix ONE meaningful constraint

The Adversity Principle

Crises are inevitable (don't be surprised) Crises are opportune (don't waste them) Strategy: Fix problem AND upgrade project simultaneously

The 9 Skills Overview

Skill Workflow

SKILL 1: Intuition Pumps | (generates idea) v SKILL 2: Risk Assessment | (evaluates feasibility) v SKILL 3: Optimization Function | (defines success metrics) v SKILL 4: Parameter Strategy | (determines flexibility) v SKILL 5: Decision Tree | (plans execution and evaluation) v SKILL 6: Adversity Planning | (prepares for failure mod