Scenario War Room

What This Skill Does

The Scenario War Room skill models cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions to identify compound risks. It helps users go beyond single-assumption stress tests to understand how one problem creates the next. This skill is useful for proactive risk management and contingency planning.

When to Use

Model the impact of losing a top customer and missing a fundraise. Simulate the effects of engineering resignations on product delivery. Analyze market shrinkage combined with competitor funding. Identify concrete hedges against potential risks. Establish triggers for implementing contingency plans. Stress test the business against compound adversity.

Key Features

Models cascading effects across business functions. Analyzes compound risks, not just single-variable stress tests. Models three severity levels for each scenario. Outputs concrete hedges and triggers for action. Defines scenario variables with probability and timeline. Maps domain impact across cash, revenue, product, engineering, and people.

Manual Installation

Manual installation

Keywords

scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem

Quick Start

python scripts/scenario_modeler.py # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling

Or describe the scenario: /war-room "What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?" /war-room "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?" /war-room "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?"

What This Is Not

Not a single-assumption stress test (that's /em:stress-test) Not financial modeling only — every function gets modeled Not worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels Not paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers

Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model

Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)

State each variable with: What changes — specific, quantified if possible Probability — your best estimate Timeline — when it hits

Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days

Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3

Variable C: Lead engineer resigns Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown

Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

For each variable, each relevant role models impact:

Step 3: Cascade Effect Mapping

This is the core. Show how Variable A triggers consequences in domains that trigger Variable B's effects:

TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR) ↓ CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months ↓ CHRO: Hiring freeze; retention risk increases (morale hit) ↓ CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen; roadmap slips ↓ CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → customer retention risk ↓ CRO: NRR drops; existing accounts see reduced velocity → more churn risk ↓ CFO: [Secondary cascade — potential death spiral if not interrupted]

Name the cascade explicitly. Show where it can be interrupted.

Step 4: Severity Matrix

Model three scenarios:

For each severity level: Runway impact ARR impact Headcount impact Timeline to unacceptable state (trigger point)

Step 5: Trigger Points (Early Warning Signals)

Define the measurable signal that tells you a scenario is unfolding before it's confirmed:

Trigger for Customer Churn Risk:

• Sponsor goes dark for >3 weeks
• Usage drops >25% MoM
• No Q1 QBR confirmed by Dec 1

Trigger for Fundraise Delay:

• <3 term sheets after 60 days of process
• Lead investor requests >30-day extension on DD
• Competitor raises at lower valuation (market signal)

Trigger for Engineering Attrition:

• Glassdoor activity from engineering team
• 2+ referral interview requests from engineers
• Above-market offer counter-required in last 3 months

Step 6: Hedging Strategies

For each scenario: actions to take now (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does.

Output Format

Every war room session produces:

SCENARIO: [Name] Variables: [A, B, C] Most likely path: [which combination actually plays out, with probability]

SEVERITY LEVELS Base (A only): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions] Stress (A+B): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions] Severe (A+B+C): [runway/ARR impact] — existential risk: [yes/no]

CASCADE MAP [A → domain impact → B trigger → domain impact → end state]

EARLY WARNING SIGNALS [Signal 1 → which scenario it indicates] [Signal 2 → which scenario it indicates] [Signal 3 → which scenario it indicates]

HEDGES (take these actions now) [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date] [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date] [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]

RECOMMENDED DECISION [One paragraph. What to do, in what order, and why.]

Rules for Good War Room Sessions

Max 3 variables per scenario. More than 3 is noise — you can't meaningfully prepare for 5-variable collapse. Model the 3 that actually worry you.

Quantify or estimate. "Revenue drops" is not useful. "$420K ARR at risk over 60 days" is. Use ranges if uncertain.

Don't stop at first-order effects. The damage is always in the cascade, not the initial hit.

Model recovery, not just impact. Every scenario should have a "what we do" path.

Separate base case from sensitivity. Don't conflate "what probably happens" with "what could happen."

Don't over-model. 3-4 scenarios per planning cycle is the right number. More creates analysis paralysis.

Common Scenarios by Stage

Seed: Co-founder leaves + product misses launch Funding runs out + bridge terms unfavorable

Series A: Miss ARR target + fundraise delayed Key customer churns + competitor raises

Series B: Market contraction + burn multiple spikes Lead investor wants pivot + team resists

Integration with C-Suite Roles